MRO CAPACITYGulf & Southeast AsiaHIGH CONFIDENCE
Late-booking widebody operators will face turnaround quotes two to three weeks longer than spring pricing through Q4 2026
- BINDS BY
- Q4 2026
- ISSUED
- 17 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED
- 17 Aug 2026
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CONSTRAINT RADAR
What binds first — and what would prove us wrong
Dated capacity forecasts on crews, shop slots, conversion lines, ground handling and launch cadence. Every claim carries its method, its falsifier and a public scorecard.
- live forecasts
- 11
- resolved to date
- 4
- scored correct
- 2.5/4
- constraint domains
- 5
PEOPLE & LICENSINGSoutheast Asia & GulfHIGH CONFIDENCE
Simulator device availability, not aircraft delivery, will set regional narrowbody induction pace through 2027
- BINDS BY
- Q2 2027
- ISSUED
- 17 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED
- 17 Aug 2026
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SPACE GROUND SEGMENTAfrica & Southeast AsiaMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Trained ground-station operators will remain the binding constraint on equatorial-belt capacity into 2027, not antenna hardware
- BINDS BY
- Q3 2027
- ISSUED
- 17 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED
- 17 Aug 2026
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PEOPLE & LICENSINGSoutheast AsiaHIGH CONFIDENCE
Vietnam will be roughly 400 licensed engineers short against its 2027 delivery book
- BINDS BY
- Q3 2027
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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AIRCRAFT & CONVERSIONGlobal · hits Africa & LatAm hardestMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Narrowbody freighter conversion slots bind roughly 14 months before freight rates recover
- BINDS BY
- Q2 2027
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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SHOP & HANGAR CAPACITYGulf & South AsiaMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Three of the five Gulf carriers taking 787s in 2028 have no committed widebody base-maintenance slot
- BINDS BY
- Q1 2028
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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PEOPLE & LICENSINGAfrica & Central AsiaHIGH CONFIDENCE
Instructor supply, not simulator capital, caps training expansion across both regions through 2028
- BINDS BY
- Continuous · visible now
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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AIRPORTS & GROUNDCentral AsiaMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Cold-store capacity, not runway or terminal, limits Central Asian freight transit growth
- BINDS BY
- Q4 2027
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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AIRCRAFT & CONVERSIONOceania & PacificMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Pacific island turboprop fleets reach a parts cliff before any replacement programme is funded
- BINDS BY
- 2028–2029
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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SHOP & HANGAR CAPACITYAsia-PacificHIGH CONFIDENCE
Engine test-cell access, not shop floor space, sets the ceiling on Asian GTF throughput
- BINDS BY
- Q2 2027
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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SPACE & LAUNCHAsia, Africa & Latin AmericaMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Ground-segment capacity binds before launch capacity for emerging-market satellite operators
- BINDS BY
- Q3 2027
- ISSUED
- 13 Aug 2026
- REVIEWED (AT ISSUE)
- 13 Aug 2026
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SCORECARD · RESOLVED FORECASTS
We publish the ones we got wrong too
| VERDICT | CLAIM | OUTCOME | ISSUED | RESOLVED |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CALLED | GTF shop-visit turnarounds would pass 300 days at Asian facilities before mid-2026 | Confirmed. Several Asian shops reported turnarounds beyond 300 days by July 2026, against a normal cycle nearer 90. The binding constraint proved to be technicians and test cells rather than hangar space, as stated. | Feb 2026 | Jul 2026 |
| CALLED | Conversion slot scarcity would decide cargo contracts ahead of unit price | Confirmed. Operators in Latin America and Africa publicly cited delivery certainty rather than price as the deciding factor on 2026 conversion commitments. | Mar 2026 | Aug 2026 |
| PARTLY | Two new Part-147 organisations would be approved in Southeast Asia during 2026 | One approval granted rather than two. The direction was right but our timing was optimistic — we underweighted how long authority audits take when the authority is itself short-staffed. That correction is now built into the Vietnam call above. | Jan 2026 | Aug 2026 |
| MISSED | African intra-continental fares would ease as SAATM signatories passed forty | Wrong. Signatures grew but implementation did not follow, and fares per kilometre stayed among the highest anywhere. We mistook a policy signal for an operational one — we now judge liberalisation by fifth-freedom routes actually flown, not by agreements signed. | Dec 2025 | Jul 2026 |