EXPOSURE GRAPH

If a programme slips, who actually carries the cost

Programme dependency tracing: the suppliers, maintenance shops, lessors and training providers exposed to each major programme, graded and reasoned.

DISRUPTION UNDER WAYPrime: Pratt & Whitney

Pratt & Whitney GTF — powder-metal inspection programme

A metallurgical finding pulled a large engine population forward into unscheduled shop visits. The engines are the story everyone reports; the shops, lessors and operators absorbing them are where the money actually moves.

IF IT GOES WRONG

Every additional quarter of inspection backlog extends turnarounds past 300 days, keeps spare-engine lease rates elevated, and forces operators without spare cover to park owned aircraft.

IF IT GOES RIGHT

Shops that added test-cell capacity through the disruption keep the throughput advantage once the backlog clears, and hold pricing power on the next wave.

Dependents

4 high · 1 medium · 1 low

SISIA Engineering CompanyEngine shopHIGH
Shop slots committed to inspection work displace higher-margin scheduled overhauls. Revenue holds, mix worsens.
GMGMF AeroAsiaEngine shopHIGH
Expanding into the disruption. Upside if capacity lands before the backlog clears, stranded investment if it lands after.
VJVietjet AirOperatorHIGH
Narrowbody fleet heavily GTF-powered with limited spare-engine cover. Parked aircraft translate directly into lost ASKs.
INIndiGoOperatorHIGH
Largest affected operator in South Asia. Has offset with wet leases, which caps the damage but raises unit cost.
WLWillis Lease FinanceEngine lessorMEDIUM
Direct beneficiary. Spare-engine lease rates stay elevated for as long as the backlog persists.
TATAECOAirframe MROLOW
Indirect. Airframe checks get rescheduled around engine availability, disrupting slot planning without changing volume.

SLIP SCENARIO

Twelve months is where second-tier suppliers start failing

Beyond a year, dependents without diversified customers run out of runway rather than patience. Tooling sits idle, skilled staff leave for adjacent programmes and are not easily recovered, and the qualification work that made them a supplier begins to lapse. This is the point at which a delay becomes a supply-chain loss rather than a schedule problem.

AT RISK: HIGH + MEDIUM
LEAD (MTHS): 6–8
RECOVERY: 4–6 quarters

HOW WE GOT HERE

SOURCES: Manufacturer service statements · operator fleet disclosures · MRO shop capacity announcements · engine lessor rate commentary
METHOD: We take the affected engine population from the manufacturer’s own inspection notices, divide by disclosed shop slots across the region, and add the inspection turnaround stated by shops themselves. Dependents are graded by what share of their disclosed revenue or fleet touches the programme — above roughly a third is HIGH, a tenth to a third MEDIUM, below that LOW.
OBSERVED: The inspection programme, the engine population, published shop expansions and quoted turnaround times are all matters of public record.
INFERRED: The grading is our judgement. Revenue concentration is rarely disclosed exactly, so we estimate it from fleet composition and contract announcements — a reader with better information should override us.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH — The inputs are disclosed rather than modelled, and the turnaround figures come from multiple independent shops that agree.
FALSIFIER: Turnarounds returning below 150 days across two or more Asian shops, or the inspection population being revised down materially.
LAST REVIEWED: 14 August 2026