Pacific island carriers face a turboprop replacement problem with no obvious answer

Island networks across Melanesia and Polynesia run on turboprops that are, in several cases, older than the airlines operating them. The routes are short, the loads are light, and the runways are frequently unpaved — a combination that rules out almost everything currently in production.

The economics are the difficulty. A route carrying 15 passengers twice a week cannot amortise a new aircraft, but the alternative is maintaining airframes whose parts supply is drying up. Several operators now hold spares inventories worth more than the aircraft they support.

Interest in the Dornier 228NG and the Cessna SkyCourier is real but budget-constrained, and lessors have little appetite for assets they cannot remarket.

Our read: this is where aviation development finance would do most good per dollar, and where almost none currently goes. Watch which governments start underwriting fleet renewal directly.